Preakness win makes Lookin At Lucky first in NTRA Poll

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/17/2010 - New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lookin At Lucky, coming off his win in the Preakness Stakes, sits atop the latest NTRA Three-year-old Poll. The colt's success in the middle jewel of racing's Triple Crown also vaulted him into third-place in the national standings.

The 2009 champion as a two-year-old jumped from fourth in last week's poll into first following a three-quarters length win over First Dude at Pimlico Race Course. Trained by Bob Baffert, Lookin At Lucky received 14 first-place votes and 174 points.

Kentucky Derby champ Super Saver, eighth in the Preakness, dropped one spot to second with three first-place votes and 148 points.

Derby runner-up Ice Box did not run on Saturday and also fell one slot to third with 137 points.

Blind Luck, winner of the Kentucky Oaks, rose one position to fourth with 92 points.

Preakness runner-up First Dude enters the poll in fifth with 78 points.

The retired Eskendereya continued to receive one first-place vote and remains in sixth with 58 points.

Jackson Bend, third in the Preakness, also enters the poll in seventh with 48 points.

Dropping from third to eighth is Paddy O'Prado after finishing sixth in the Preakness. Third in the Kentucky Derby, Paddy O'Prado received 47 points.

Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy fell one spot to ninth with 40 points and Kentucky Oaks runner-up Evening Jewel received 31 points to also slide one notch to 10th.

In the NTRA National Poll, undefeated mare Zenyatta and Quality Road are still in the top two spots, respectively. Zenyatta has 14 first-place votes and 170 points while Quality Road has four top votes and 155 points.

Lookin At Lucky received 97 points for third followed by Misremembered 70, Blind Luck 68, Rachel Alexandra 60, Super Saver 57, Unrivaled Belle 45, Blame 36 and Rail Trip with 32 points.

Blame used a win in Saturday's $100,000 William Donald Schaefer Stakes at Pimlico to gain entrance into the poll.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.