Probable Belmont Stakes favorite training at Saratoga

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/26/2010 - Elmont, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box, the probable Belmont Stakes favorite, is being trained for the Test of Champions at Saratoga Race Course by Nick Zito. The colt will be one of two horses that the Hall of Fame trainer will run in the final jewel of racing's Triple Crown.

Owned by Robert LaPenta, Ice Box will be joined by Richard Pell's Fly Down in the 1 1/2-mile race on Saturday, June 5. Fly Down is coming off a victory in the Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park on May 8.

On Wednesday Ice Box galloped almost two miles on the Oklahoma Training Track at Saratoga Race Course. The Florida Derby champ will likely have a breeze Thursday morning.

Fly Down worked four-furlongs last Saturday in 49 2/5 seconds. Zito plans to bring both colts to Belmont Park next Wednesday.

"Right now, everything is positive and we want to keep it that way," Zito said. "I'm going to stay here, take care of the horses, and go from there."

Ice Box is the winner of three of eight career starts with $906,535. Fly Down has earned $182,070 in five starts and three lifetime wins.

Make Music for Me, fourth in the Kentucky Derby, has been galloping at Belmont Park for trainer Alexis Barba.

Owned by Peter and Ellen Johnson, Make Music for Me has nine career starts with one win and two second-place finishes. The colt has earned $362,260.

Preakness runner-up First Dude also took a gallop around Belmont Park on Wednesday morning. First Dude is trained by Dale Romans for owner Donald Dizney.

"He's doing great," said exercise rider Tammy Fox, who is overseeing First Dudes preparations for the Belmont Stakes. "He's getting over the track fine; he's just floating right over it. He's such a big horse with a long stride, and you don't feel like he's doing anything. He's real easy on himself."

First Dude has one win in seven career starts for $352,160. He was fifth in the Florida Derby and third in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Also expected to start in the 142nd Belmont Stakes are Game On Dude, Stately Victor, Drosselmeyer, Stay Put, Uptowncharlybrown, and Spangled Star.

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MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

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